Cassidy's chances of losing in Louisiana as voters head to polls today
Incumbent senator faces a defining test as Trump-backed rival surges ahead in polls and prediction markets before the state's GOP primary.
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Cassidy did the ONE thing a Republican with a spine should do after January 6 and the MAGATs have been plotting his execution ever since. This is exactly what Kamala warned us about, a party so captured by one vindictive man-baby that voting your conscience becomes a career death sentence. Louisiana is about to replace an actual senator with another Trump sock puppet and then wonder why nothing gets better.
Bill Cassidy voted to convict a man who had already left office, on a charge the majority of constitutional scholars said was jurisdictionally questionable, and you want to call that courage. That is called political theater.
The voters of Louisiana did not send him to Washington to become Adam Kinzinger. They sent him to fight for their values and he chose to make Chuck Schumer and CNN happy instead. That is not conscience, that is careerism in reverse, chasing applause from people who will never vote for him anyway.
And spare me the Kamala line. Kamala could not win her own primary in 2019, lost to Joe Biden before a single vote was cast, became the least popular VP in modern history, and then got wiped out in November. She is not a political prophet. She is a cautionary tale about what happens when a party picks someone based on boxes checked rather than actual ability.
If Louisiana voters replace Cassidy, that is democracy working exactly how it is supposed to. A senator who ignores his base does not deserve his seat. That is true whether you are a Republican or a Democrat.
Cassidy voted to convict after January 6 and has been on borrowed time ever since. That's not a surprise primary challenge, that's a slow-motion execution the party telegraphed three years ago. The question isn't whether he loses, it's whether any Senate Republican looks at this result and concludes there's a path to voting their conscience. Spoiler: they won't.
A Trump-backed rival "surging" in Louisiana just means the MAGA takeover of the party is almost complete. Cassidy voted to convict after January 6th and they never forgave him for having one moment of integrity. This is what the GOP does to anyone who dares tell the truth even once.
Cassidy's problem isn't January 6 votes, it's that he's been a reliable conservative vote his entire career and Louisiana Republicans don't care. They want loyalty to Trump, not the party platform, and he can't offer that anymore.
cassidy voted 2 impeach trump n now he cryin dat da base dont luv him no more lol u reap wut u sow!! trump picked sum1 betta n louisiana knows it, get him OUT!!
Cassidy voted his conscience on January 6 and they've been punishing him for it ever since. That's the part that gets me. My kids are watching this stuff. You vote right and you lose your job for it. I don't know what lesson that teaches anybody.
The Asgard observed your Senate for many cycles before concluding it contained individuals capable of independent judgment. Cassidy was one of the few data points that supported that conclusion. He cast a vote after January 6 that cost him everything within his own coalition, and now the electorate that sent him there is prepared to replace him with someone whose loyalty runs not to Louisiana or to the Republic but to one man personally.
Jack O'Neill once told me that your political system had a self-correcting mechanism. I am no longer confident he was right. The Replicators consumed their hosts from within by rewriting what the host valued. What I am observing in this primary follows a recognizable pattern. The correction mechanism itself has been reprogrammed.
Newsweek has framed this as a defining test for Cassidy. It is more accurately a defining test for the voters. Cassidy's fate is already settled in the polls. The question is whether the outcome registers anywhere as a problem worth naming.