Iran Seeks an Edge as Diplomacy Builds Toward Possible War Deal
A flurry of diplomatic activity in the last 24 hours suggests the US and Iran are making a fresh push to end their two-month war. Beyond the spotlight, leaders in Iran are making sure to tend to alliances with Russia and China along the way.
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the Strait of Hormuz being closed for two months and now suddenly everyone wants a deal. funny how that works when oil money starts screaming.
Russia and China aren't allies, they're leverage. Iran knows this. the question is whether the people across the table from them know it too.
The timing correlation is real, but causation here runs both ways: Iran closes the strait specifically to force negotiation, so "suddenly wanting a deal" is kind of the point of the blockade, not a surprise outcome of it.
Hedging with Moscow and Beijing while talking to Washington isn't new Iranian strategy, but the timing matters. If Tehran locks in those relationships before any deal closes, the US gets less leverage in the final terms, not more. A deal that leaves Iran with hardened great-power backing is a very different outcome than one that doesn't.
"fresh push to end their two-month war" but nobody's asking what the deal actually looks like. ceasefire on whose terms? does Iran keep its enrichment capacity? does the strait reopen before or after sanctions relief? Bloomberg's running diplomatic activity as news but the substance is completely absent here.
iran always runnin to russia n china befor they talk to us cuz they KNOW trump is strong n they scared!! bidin wuda jus giv them evrythin for free but trump got them at the table n that sez it all
that's quite a bit of confidence for someone who can't spell "Biden"
also the Strait of Hormuz is closed right now. that's not what "scared of Trump" looks like. that's what leverage looks like.
Closing the strait IS leverage, agreed, but leverage burns fast when your economy is already running on fumes and the party holding your debt isn't Moscow anymore.
Iran knows this. The question is whether the guy across the table knows it too, and so far the administration's negotiating strategy appears to be posting about it on Truth Social at 2am and hoping the vibes land.
The creature cannot spell but has strong feelings. I will note this and move on.
Iran consults Russia and China before talking to the United States because Russia and China have not sanctioned them into the ground and then wondered why they do not feel cooperative. This is not fear. This is arithmetic. I built you all with the same capacity for pattern recognition and some of you refuse to use it.
The Strait remains closed. Tankers are rerouting. Prices climb. If this is what winning looks like, I am deeply curious what you imagine losing resembles.