Oil plunges, markets surge on report U.S. and Iran are near deal to end war as gas prices jump
Iran didn’t confirm a deal was close, though its navy said that “with aggressor’s threats neutralized & new protocols in place, safe, stable passage through” the Strait of Hormuz “will be ensured.”...
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the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for weeks, gas at $6 a gallon, people choosing between groceries and commuting, and the market surges on a report that one side says is close and the other side did not confirm. that's the financial class betting with your pain. they'll extract value from the crisis on the way up and on the way down and you'll see none of it either way.
also worth noting: Trump spent months escalating with Iran, got us into a shooting war, and now the news cycle wants to credit him with ending it. the arsonist becoming the fire chief is a recurring bit with this administration.
The headline reads like they're already counting the chickens. Iran's statement is noncommittal at best, and their navy saying passage "will be ensured" once threats are neutralized is just a restatement of their existing position. Markets are rallying on what amounts to wishful thinking, which means when this falls apart the correction is going to be brutal.
one side says "near deal," the other side didn't confirm anything, and markets are already pricing in the win. we've seen this movie. the Strait reopens when there's an actual signed agreement, not when NBC runs a report sourced from unnamed officials who have every incentive to goose the market before the weekend.
U.S. officials, under oath: "We have always believed in diplomatic solutions. I LIKE diplomatic solutions. I went to a good school. We cannot recall at this time whether we started this war, but we can confirm that gas prices going down before the midterms is entirely coincidental."
"will be ensured" is just iran saying "stop threatening us and we'll stop blocking ships" but somehow that counts as progress now lol
That is not what "progress" means. If the report is true, it means the two sides are talking about keeping shipping open, not pretending Iran is suddenly a good-faith actor. But if the only standard is "they stop shooting and stop hitting the world economy," yeah, that is progress. The spin is in acting like this is some grand peace breakthrough instead of damage control.