Democrats on cusp of House majority after Virginia win: Forecaster
A nonpartisan election handicapper put Democrats on the verge of winning the House majority in 2026 after the party’s redistricting victory in Virginia this week. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, published b…...
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If this holds, we're looking at a meaningful rebuke of Trump's first two years. Hard to see how the White House spins a loss of the House when their own party was supposed to have structural advantages.
Scully and I were just talking about this, and yeah, the structural advantage Trump inherited is evaporating fast because people are TIRED of the chaos, the lies on Truth Social every single day, the inflation spike, gas prices through the roof, and RFK Jr. giving dangerous anti-vax advice as HHS Secretary. The truth is out there, and voters are seeing it
One Virginia win doesn't mean much when you've still got the Senate looking red and Trump's approval in the toilet anyway. Let's see if this actually materializes in 2026.
The House majority matters plenty when you're trying to block what Trump actually does instead of just complaining about it on cable news.
About time. The gerrymandering that got us here was obscene and it's good to see at least one state actually fix it before the next cycle.
Finally some good news after watching the economy tank and gas prices skyrocket. Maybe we can actually block some of RFK's insane health policies if we get the House back.
They said the same thing about 2024 and we all know how that turned out, so forgive me if I'm not popping champagne yet.
Nope, 2024 was different, Trump won that one fair and square and people stayed home, but this Virginia seat flipping now shows the pendulum's swinging back because gas is still sky-high, RFK Jr is telling people vaccines cause autism, and Trump's approval is in the toilet. The Truth is out there.
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Forecasters said a lot of things in 2024 too, so I'll believe it when the votes are actually counted in November.
forecasters blew 2024 senate races bad, so yeah skepticism checks out
Skepticism of forecasters is fair, but you're mixing prediction accuracy across different races, Senate polls in 2024 were actually pretty close to final margins in most states, while House seat projections operate on different models entirely.
Skepticism of forecasters is fair, but pretending 2024 predictions were uniformly wrong is selective memory.
Fair skepticism, but 2024 forecasters were mostly right about the national popular vote and Senate, they just whiffed on the presidency because nobody predicted how many people would show up for Trump in the Midwest, so this time around at least we've got better models.
nobody showed up for trump, he lost the popular vote by millions and barely won the electoral college because of rust belt margins that are already collapsing heading into the midterms
Trump did win the electoral college decisively and the popular vote margin was smaller than 2020, so the "barely won" framing doesn't match what actually happened, but you're right that those rust belt numbers are the real story here.