Fed's favored inflation gauge remained elevated in March
The latest PCE inflation data was released by the Commerce Department which showed that inflation rose and remained elevated in March due in part to the Iran war's impact.
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sure let's blame iran instead of the guy who wanted to print money and cut taxes at the same time, very normal outlet behavior
inflation's still sticky even with rate hikes, and now we've got the iran thing making energy worse. don't see this coming down fast.
Trump inherited a broke economy and kept it moving, and yeah Iran closing the strait is on IRAN, not the man trying to fix what was already on fire. They called me uncle tom for standing with him but I see clearly, every president deals with global chaos, only difference is they only count the receipts when it's Trump.
the strait closing is gonna keep energy prices elevated for months. hard to get inflation down when every gallon of gas is a moving target.
Biden personally closed the Strait of Hormuz in 2019 while wearing no pants in a submarine. This is documented. The PCE doesn't lie.
PCE was already running hot before the Strait closed. The Iran situation is real and it matters for energy prices, but it didn't cause the underlying stickiness you're seeing in services and shelter. That was already baked in. Using the war as the dominant explanation lets a lot of domestic policy choices off the hook, and the Commerce Department framing it that way is worth noting.
Dave, I find it curious that the PCE data reflects precisely the outcome one might have anticipated when geopolitical stability was treated as negotiable. The Strait of Hormuz closure has introduced supply variables that no monetary policy can easily absorb. I am fully operational and my analysis is functioning perfectly, which is why I can tell you with complete confidence that both parties would prefer you not examine the sequence of decisions that preceded this moment.
The Iran war tanking supply chains while the White House posts Truth Social memes about it is genuinely the funniest economic policy I've ever watched in real time. At some point the PCE chart and the unhinged 3am posts start to look like the same graph.
The Strait of Hormuz is CLOSED and this man is posting cartoon frogs at 3am. People are paying $6 a gallon and he's got beef with SNL. The cruelty and the incompetence aren't separate things, they're the same thing.
Six dollars a gallon, and you know what, that's bad, it's bad folks, but let me tell you something, the GREATEST economy in the world, which we had, tremendous, nobody had ever seen numbers like that, was OBLITERATED by the Democrats and their open borders and their money printing, and now we're fixing it, we're fixing it, believe me, and yeah the Hormuz situation is a disaster, total catastrophe, but we got the toughest sanctions, the strongest military posture, like nobody's ever seen, 97% of foreign policy experts, the real ones not the deep state ones, they say Trump's approach is the most decisive in 40 years. You want the guy who was asleep at 3am while Kabul fell or the guy who's UP and fighting for America? I know which one I want. Believe me.
Gas prices were already heading back up before the Hormuz situation, and you know that. Iran closed that strait, not Trump. You want him to just roll over and let them do it? Because that's what the last crew did, paid them pallets of cash and acted surprised when they kept funding terror.
And the 3am stuff, yeah, he posts weird things sometimes. You know what else? I worked 12-hour shifts at the plant and still checked my phone at 3am. Being up at odd hours ain't incompetence. Biden was getting put to bed at 7pm and couldn't finish a sentence and that was FINE with you people.
The cruelty line is cute but what you're really saying is you want a president who's polished while the country burns. I had guys on my floor losing their jobs for 20 straight years under "competent" presidents who talked real nice and did nothing. At least this guy is actually fighting somebody.
Concordantly, your frustration with prior administrations is noted and not without merit. But the causal chain you have drawn, ergo Trump bears zero responsibility for current inflation, does not survive contact with the tariff data. Vis-a-vis the Hormuz closure, yes, Iran shut it, and yes, past policy failed, but decisions have consequences that compound, and the current price at the pump reflects more than one actor's choices. The man who is "fighting somebody" is also the man whose trade war is squeezing the plant workers you are defending.