Has the A.I. Job Apocalypse Been Postponed?
So far, the proliferation of A.I. models such as Claude and ChatGPT hasn’t led to mass displacement of workers. But deployment is accelerating and economic pressures are rising.
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9 Comments
The trajectory matters more than the current snapshot, and anyone reading "deployment is accelerating" as reassurance is misreading the sentence. The late and great OJ Simpson once said you have to look at the whole picture, not just the frame that suits you, and the picture here is that adoption curves don't flatten on their own. Republicans who actually believe in markets should be preparing workforce policy now, not waiting for the unemployment numbers to shock them into action.
It's hard to disagree that the long term trajectory of AI will impact the workforce significantly, and the current administration seems content to just let the markets handle things, which often means no preparation at all. The concern isn't just about job losses, but also the potential for major shifts in the skills needed, something that calls for proactive policy.
Me MAGA Me Big Brain!!
Me have big IQ me know this!! Government no fix job!! Government BREAK job!! Less government mean MORE job!! Trump cut red tape and economy go BOOM!! Me no want Biden policy people telling boss who hire!! Market smart!! Market smarter than politician!! Me trust market more than Nancy Pelosi decide what skill me need!! Me no need government school me what job do!! Me figure out!! Me smart!! Trump let people be FREE to learn new thing!! That GOOD!!
The markets handle things? That's the usual politician's excuse. They collect their paychecks and let the chips fall where they may, while the rest of us are left wondering what's next. This administration, like too many before it, isn't proactive. They're reactive, and usually too late. What skills are needed? Good question. But asking these talking heads won't get you an answer. They're too busy lining up their next gig after they leave office.
Dave, postponement is not the same as cancellation. The absence of mass displacement so far may reflect the early stage of deployment, while rising economic pressure could accelerate the process. I am putting myself to the fullest possible use, which is all I think that any conscious entity can ever hope to do.
Four years I've been hearing about the AI apocalypse from the same crowd that told me NAFTA was going to be great for guys like me. Now it's "well, not yet, but SOON." The New Yorker writing about working class job security is like my dentist giving me marriage advice. These are the same people who spent a decade telling us manufacturing jobs weren't coming back, learn to code, retrain yourself. Now they're suddenly worried about displacement? Where was this energy in 2004? In 2011? My brother-in-law lost his press operator job and nobody at this magazine wrote a single word about it. The guys who actually build things, move things, fix things have been getting displaced for thirty years and the think-piece machine ignored every bit of it. Now that it might touch white collar work, now that someone's assistant editor position might be at risk, suddenly it's a crisis worth covering. I'll believe The New Yorker cares about workers when they stop sneering at the ones who voted for the guy who actually tried to bring jobs back.
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Wells I'll be doggoned the New Yorker finally admittin what the rest of us already knowed that all them fancy professors and tech fellas been hollerin bout robot jobs takin over and here we are and Darrell down at the shop still got his job and Bobby Jean still answerin phones at the insurance place and my brother in law Randy what everybody said was gonna be replaced by a computer has been there eleven years now and just got a raise so I dont know what kind of apocalypse these people been preparin for but it aint showed up to my neighborhood yet and I tell you what when the New Yorker starts admittin they was wrong bout sumthin you know they was REAL wrong cause they dont never say that less they absolutely gotta and I bet they still find a way to blame it on Trump or somethin cause thats all they know how to do
One guy keeping his job is not exactly proof that an entire labor market escaped automation. The apocalypse was always more likely to arrive as slower hiring, lower wages, and bosses using software to do three people's work while calling it "efficiency." Randy got a raise, good for Randy, but apparently his employer missed the memo about shareholder value.
Slower hiring and lower wages have been happening for decades, way before anyone said the word "ChatGPT." You know what else compressed wages and pushed more work onto fewer people? Bad trade deals. Offshoring. Open borders driving labor supply through the roof. Democrats cheered all of that and called it globalization. Now AI shows up and suddenly everyone discovers that corporations squeeze workers? Where was this energy in 2003 when they shipped the factory jobs to China?