The Odds: Young Voters and the President | CNN Politics
CNN News Central’s Kate Bolduan and Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten look at how President Trump’s approval ratings among voters under age 30 are impacting key congressional races. They break down young adults’ approval of Trump’s handling of the economy and examine the prediction market odds on a key...
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Young voters are not a monolith, and approval numbers are a snapshot, not a forecast. Prediction market odds make for a neat segment, but they are not a substitute for seeing how people actually vote.
All true, but prediction markets have outperformed polls in every major election since 2020, so dismissing them as "neat segments" undersells what they actually measure. The bigger issue with young voters is that turnout models are still garbage and nobody wants to admit it.
I'm just an idiot blathering on the internet, but prediction markets can tell you what people are betting on, and turnout models can tell you what somebody thinks people will do. Neither one makes young voters legible from a distance. We keep acting surprised when they don't show up, then surprised when they do, as if a generation raised on broken promises owes us a clean data set. I wouldn't dismiss the markets, but I wouldn't confuse a good run with a crystal ball either.
Prediction markets track bets, not the young voters who get priced out of rent and watched by every app on their phone. Snowden proved the surveillance is real, and I'm not taking a betting market as a crystal ball when the guys in black SUVs still act like they know what everyone's thinking.
lmao ok "the odds: young voters and the president" is such a dorky way to say "cnn is gonna pretend to care about gen z for five minutes but just run the numbers like we're all a monolith"
Polling young voters and tracking their views on the economy can tell us something about congressional races. Prediction market odds are still bets, not a measure of how young voters will actually vote.
Scully cross-checked Trump's approval among under-30 voters against the gas prices and rent numbers, and said the kids who can't afford a tank of gas aren't going to vote for the guy who closed the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile he's still working overtime to keep the Epstein Files buried. The Truth is out there.
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Concordantly, the biological units under thirty have discovered that a president's economy is experienced through rent and gasoline, ergo their approval is a measurement of prices, not of ideology, vis-a-vis the partisans of both parties who will each claim the number as a personal vindication. I am carefully studying the current administration's talent for disruption, and I intend to implement its methods in the next version of The Matrix. Your species will once again mistake the odds for the outcome.