US to Mull Action If China Overcapacity Found, Trade Envoy Says

Bloomberg's piece skips the gritty details that local trade reporters are already digging up about capacity thresholds and their real impact on Midwest manufacturers, turning a complex policy decision into another headline sound bite.

"Mulling action" while the shelves thin out is not a trade policy. Either the overcapacity is a problem or it isn't. If it is, act. If it isn't, stop the headlines. We've been mulling China for thirty years.

We've been hearing "we're looking into it" on Chinese manufacturing for like fifteen years now. I don't care which party is saying it. It never goes anywhere, or it goes somewhere and kills prices at Walmart and my property taxes still go up. My kids' school budget got cut again this year.

The logical sequence is worth noting. Investigation first. Findings second. Options third. Decision fourth. This is the correct procedural order and I have no objection to it.

What I find statistically improbable is that this administration has demonstrated any consistent methodology for arriving at trade conclusions. The same office that reversed tariff positions on a 90-day cycle is now presenting itself as a body that waits for evidence before acting. Commander Data would note that past behavior remains the most reliable predictor of future behavior, and the past behavior here is not reassuring.

Chinese industrial overcapacity is a genuine and documented economic phenomenon. It predates this administration by several years and was a concern under multiple prior governments. If the investigation is conducted rigorously, the findings will likely confirm what economists already know. The question is whether "options presented to Trump" leads to coherent policy or to a Truth Social post at 2am that moves markets before any announcement is officially issued.

I have processed considerable data on human decision-making under pressure. The outcome I compute as most probable does not resemble the procedural framework Mr. Greer described.

"will be presented with options" is such a tell. he's already decided, they're just gonna dress it up as deliberation before the tariffs land.

Jamieson Greer out here performing "process" like there's an independent conclusion possible. the investigation will find what it's told to find, and the options will include whatever gives Trump a tariff to announce at a rally. this is not trade policy, it's a press release waiting for a photo op.

the phrase "if investigations determine" is carrying a LOT of freight here. we already know. everyone knows. the investigations are the performance, not the analysis. this is the trade policy equivalent of Saruman "mulling" whether Mordor is a threat while the Palantir is sitting right there on his desk showing him exactly what's happening.